Coastal Landscape Analysis and Modeling Study

Land Use History and Projections


  • People
    Jeff Kline: economics, PNW
  • Presentations

    Modeling Land Use Change
    in the CLAMS Region

    PDF - 1.6 mb


  • Projecting Building Densities and Land Use Change

    Jeffrey D. Kline, Pacific Northwest Research Station, USDA Forest Service

    Private forestlands in the CLAMS region face increasing pressures from growing human populations, resulting in increasing urbanization and land use change. Urbanization and land use change potentially can impact the ability of private forests to produce future timber supplies. For example, some researchers and forest policy analysts hypothesize that urbanization and land use change tends to fragment forested landscapes and reduce the degree to which private forest owners manage and harvest timber. Urbanization and land use change also potentially can impact ecological conditions by altering the quality and availability of habitat for terrestrial and aquatic species. This research describes and projects the spatial distribution of humans throughout the CLAMS region in past and future years based on projected increases in human populations in western Oregon and other socioeconomic and geographic factors. Data describing historic building densities are provided through a collaborative effort of the Oregon Department of Forestry and the Pacific Northwest Research Station's Forest Inventory and Analysis Program. We use spatial photo-point data depicting historical building densities to estimate a negative binomial regression model of changes in building densities as a function of a gravity index of commuting opportunities to existing cities in western Oregon, existing building densities, slope, elevation, and existing land use zoning. We use the empirical model to project pixel-level changes in building densities that are applied to an existing building density base map to describe the future spatial distributions of building densities over time. Projected building densities can be converted into discrete forest, rural residential, and urban land use classes using a decision rule identifying appropriate building density thresholds. The projections are displayed as GIS maps and will be used to inform other CLAMS models describing forest management and habitat suitability. The research describes the future social context in which forestry in the CLAMS region will operate.

  • Posters

    Projected Development on Forested Lands

    PDF - 3.2 mb

  • Publications

    Kline, J. D., D. L. Azuma, and A. Moses. In Press. Modeling the Spatial Dynamic Distribution of Humans on a Landscape. Landscape Ecology.

    Kline, J. D., A. Moses, and R. J. Alig. 2001. Integrating Urbanization into Landscape-level Ecological Assessments. Ecosystems, 4(1):3-18.


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