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California vegetation as simulated by the MC1 model. Years 1895 - 2100
By Ray Drapek, US Forest Service. The file is large, so expect a wait!

This MPEG file shows California vegetation as simulated by the MC1 model. Years 1895 - 1993 are based on Historical climate (station data extrapolated to a grid). Years 1994 - 2095 are based on the Hadley general circulation model. The yellow in the central valley is grassland. The pink is arid-lands. The brown is shrublands. There are 2 greens for 2 forest types. The flashes of red show fire events. MC1 produces some fire on almost all map-cells each year, but for the sake of this video, the cell was colored red if fire exceeded some threshold. If a map-cell is colored red, it does not mean that MC1 simulates fire across the entire 100 square kilometer map-cell. Note, this is a particularly wet climate scenario, and actually results in an expansion of forest area. Other climate scenarios produce different results. Note also that the MC1 model shows "potential vegetation", not actual vegetation. Much of those central valley "grasslands" are actually agriculture. Future models coming from the MAPSS team will include human induced landscape changes.