Retro study
The watershed-scale
retrospective study
Group: Bernard Bormann, Ross Kiester, John Tappeiner, John Hayes, Kermit Cromack,
We will identify comparisons to be studied among the 1330 managed stands (about 33,000 acres) interlaced between natural forests (also 33,000 acres) in the watershed. The complexity of Five Rivers history
has been importantly limited by the Yaquina fire of 1849, which burned most trees and logs; uniform soil parent material (Tyee sandstone); and predominant (81%) federal ownership.  We will evaluate 8 measures and indicators of long-term productivity and biodiversity across 3 scales, plots (0.1 ac), stands (40 ac), and roadsheds (1300 ac); different disturbance and management regimes; different topographic
positions and soils; and different proximities to other stand or landscape patterns—using various techniques, including exploratory data analysis, classification and regression trees, and visualization. We will emphasize factors that emerge as scale is increased, such as forest roads and patterns created by adaptive management.
The goal of our retrospective study is to better understand important management, disturbance, and other biophysical processes driving long-term productivity and biodiversity—based on an interpretation model focused on evaluating the interplay between societal (managers’ intentions) and biophysical mechanisms, as a way to extend insight and inference to other places and intentions.  The retrospective study—based on a comprehensive watershed-wide GIS system with all historical and management-related data and images collected on the 76,330-acre watershed—complements the landscape experiment by:    Learning what we can from what has already happened;
   Providing baseline pretreatment data for the experiment; and
   Fine-tuning hypotheses and treatments to be tested rigorously in
   the experiment.
Summary
The 76,330-acre Five Rivers watershed
The landscape experiment